Tesla revealed during the Q3 2019 Earnings Call that they expect Full Self-Driving to become “feature-complete” by the end of the year.
Those enrolled in Tesla’s Early Access program (available to all customers that have purchased Full Self-Driving) will receive an update later this year that enables the rest of Tesla’s promised Full Self-Driving features, including the ability to recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs as well as what the company describes as “automatic driving on city streets.”
Feature-complete Full Self-Driving was described by Elon as the ability for a Tesla to drive from an owner’s house to work “most likely without interventions.” This means that it would still have to be fully supervised. Low-speed autonomy with Summon combined with high-speed autonomy provided by Autopilot along with the ability to recognize stop lights and stop signs completes Full Self-Driving.
Tesla considers there to be three major levels to autonomy:
The ability for the vehicle to drive autonomously with supervision.
Tesla is confident a vehicle can be driven without supervision
Regulators are fully convinced that a Tesla can drive without supervision.
According to Elon, we should reach a level where Tesla is confident in Full-Self Driving by the end of 2020, which should enable Robotaxi functionality that no longer requires a driver’s attention. Musk remains firm in his belief that once Robotaxi functionality is ready, it will lead to the biggest increase in asset value in history.
The price of Full Self-Driving will continue to increase slowly as functionality and capability improve. Currently, the feature accounts for half a billion in unrecognized revenue for Tesla.
These predictions seem optimistic, but the company must be confident in its ability to bring Full Self-Driving to market in a safe and reliable manner. Smart Summon is already being improved by fleet learning, so we will have to continue to monitor its progress over the coming months to predict the likelihood of Full Self-Driving becoming fully feature-complete by the end of this year.
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